主题：Silver, Fiduciary Money, and Economic Performance in China: 1890-1936             

(1890-1936年间我国的银币外流、信用纸币制度与经济发展情况)

主讲：陈波华中科技大学经济学院教授

主持：高翔

时间：2019年09月24日（周二）下午14：00 -15：30

地点：徐汇校区1407研讨室

内容提要：The existing literature debates whether the American Silver Purchase Act (ASPA) in 1934 resulted in an economic crisis in China. Yet all positive arguments rely on an assertion that there was a severe deflation due to the ASPA which receives weak data support. This paper uses a new historical datasetto investigate the long run relation among silver outflow, international trade and fiduciary money. We find a mitigation effect from terms of trade when a decrease in silver price caused silver outflow from 1890-1934. We also find the issue of fiduciary money was responsive to the silver outflow such that China’s aggregate money supply was not severely affected by the silver outflow. As a result, we uncover the puzzle why China encountered neither a serious deflation nor a financial or economic crisis when the ASPA occurred.

现有文献对1934年美国购银法案所造成的中国白银外流是否直接导致了当时中国发生经济危机存有争议。但支持有影响一方的观点都基于美国购银法案曾诱发中国发生严重通货紧缩这一假设，此假设其实是没有翔实的数据来证实的。本文使用一套新构建的历史数据集来探讨白银外流、国际贸易和信用纸币之间的长期关系，并发现：中国1890-1934年间的白银外流确对贸易条件有削减作用，但中国货币供给由于纸币体系的快速调整其实并未受到多大影响。因此，本文所支持的观点是：美国购银发案未能造成中国发生严重通货紧缩，也未能导致中国发生金融或经济危机。

演讲者简介：陈波，华中科技大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，研究领域包括：国际贸易与商务、中国经济和区域经贸合作。曾在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、Journal of International Economics、World Economy、Journal of Comparative Economics、Economics Letters、Review of Development Economics、Review of International Economics和China Economic Journal等期刊发表论文多篇

主办单位：上海商学院财金研究所

承办单位：上海商学院财金研究所